by Griff, NPH Pasca and WickedGood
This past weekend was the last chance to qualify for Masters Tour Stormwind. The next set of qualifiers will be for Undercity. This report analyses the data from all the Hearthstone matches played in these last 20 open cups.
Data summary from Off-Curve:
In general, we are continuing to see a pretty heavy rock-paper-scissors trend in conquest. We see a lot of aggressive lineups trying to beat quest lineups (Quest Warlock and Quest Mage), and we have control lineups targeting the aggro decks that in turn are beaten by quest decks. This is why we see off meta decks like Control Priest, that is phenomenal into aggro and not much else, having high winrates despite not being considered a great deck outside of tournaments. However, just countering one set of decks isn’t enough to make a deck viable. Weapon Rogue sports an absurd 89% winrate over mage and 64% against Warlock but has a small distribution and a subpar winrate.
We are likely to continue to see a similar trend moving forward because of the inevitability that the Questlines provide. This forces decks to become faster to beat those decks, which in turn creates the aggro-killing control decks. This means that deck and lineup decisions have greater weight, leading to an importance for prematch analytics and understanding of minute changes in the tournament metagame to gain a competitive advantage.
Click on the players names to get full lists and deck codes from D0nkey. You will also see which class the player banned throuhout their run.
Meta Defining Lineups:
Fel Demon Hunter, Questline Shaman, Questline Hand Warlock (RazieL / Jaziel / Patatedouce)
This lineup has been the most successful this weekend showing up the most of any lineup in top 8’s by a wide margin. These lists do well into the aggressive decks of the format, preying on the popularity of Face Hunter and Shadow Aggro Priest whilst not giving up a lot of power against slower decks. Because this lineup is relatively slow compared to the rest of the format, it looks to ban mage and other Warlocks. Mage can easily burn Warlock and Shaman before they are able to close the game. Warlock is the other ban of choice to avoid an abysmal shaman matchup that would put this lineup at a disadvantage. This is the lineup to beat in three deck conquest and I expect it to continue to be popular.
Fel Demon Hunter, Miracle Rogue, Questline Shaman (Noflame / kugatsu)
In the past week, we’ve seen an aggressive miracle rogue utilizing garrote and Field Contact pick up a lot of traction, and as a result, many lineups have become more effective as a result. We saw a similar lineup doing well in qualifiers running Control Priest instead of Rogue. Similar to that lineup, this lineup is consistently strong against aggressive decks but has a better chance against Quest decks with the Rogue inclusion. This lineup’s Main weaknesses are Warlock and other Demon Hunter decks. Warlock is the most popular ban with the rest being a relatively mixed bag. This lineup has a very flexible ban slot that gives it an edge.
Face Hunter, Shadow Priest, Miracle Rogue (Logoss / Farath)
This is an example of a more aggressive lineup featuring Miracle Rogue. With Priest being present, it is consistently strong into other aggro centric lineups while also being extremely strong against Quest Mage and, to a lesser extent, warlock. Rogue gives this lineup great flexibility as it can win almost any matchup, which helps against the lineups that target priest and Hunter. This lineup still never wants to see Fel DH or Quest Shaman however, making it relatively weak to the top lineup that defines this meta. Pilots of this lineup will almost always ban Shaman or Demon Hunter given the opportunity.
Face Hunter, Shadow Priest, Aggro Shaman (しーや)
This particular lineup is one of the most aggressive we’re seeing do well. These decks do really well into most of the OTKs including Anacondra Druid and Questline Mage. Being the aggro lineup of the format, players of this lineup never want to see Questline shaman and ban it whenever possible. Warlock is another popular ban because its matches are mostly 50/50 or slightly favored. This aggressive lineup also does very well into other aggro decks because of Shadow Priest and Aggro Shaman. Expect to see a lot of a similar lineup continue to thrive in qualifiers in upcoming weeks.
Questline Mage, Miracle Rogue, Questline Hand Warlcok (Sidnell)
If you want to beat Quest Shaman, this is the lineup to do it. You also have the ability to go toe-to-toe with Warlock. This lineup struggles against early aggression, so other rogues and Hunters are popular bans, along with Demon Hunter. Quest and Fel Demon Hunter can easily pick up wins against rogue and Mage. Fortunately, lineups with Demon Hunters often sport Quest Shaman as well, making the DH ban and hard target on the Shaman a viable strategy.
Pretty Good Lineups:
Questline Demon Hunter, Miracle Rogue, Questline Hand Warlock (Crefno)
Face Hunter, Shadow Priest, Weapon Rogue (badajimpom)
Questline Mage, Miracle Rogue, Questline Shaman (ThunderUP)
Questline Demon Hunter, Face Hunter, Shadow Priest (Melon / Zycan12)
Questline Mage, Questline Shaman, Questline Hand Warlock (Icsobr)
Token Druid, Shadow Priest, Elemental Shaman (Danneskjöld)
Face Hunter, Handbuff Paladin, Shadow Priest (에렛지디)
Questline Demon Hunter, Questline Shaman, Questline Hand Warlock (losefield / wolf91)
Questline Demon Hunter, Questline Mage, Weapon Rogue (Tincho)
Deathrattle Demon Hunter, Shadow Priest, Weapon Rogue (fèl)
Questline Demon Hunter, Shadow Priest, Questline Shaman (DarkMagician )
Token Druid, Face Hunter, Shadow Priest (간지남)
Face Hunter, Shadow Priest, Questline Shaman (coyote06 / SnakeFawdz)
Celestial Druid, Questline Mage, Questline Hand Warlock (FedosFF)
Fel Demon Hunter, Control Priest, Questline Shaman (我只是個新手 / SAVOR)
Questline Demon Hunter, Handbuff Paladin, Shadow Priest (Rain)
Questline Hunter, Questline Shaman, Questline Hand Warlock (Otsuna / Chewie)
Face Hunter, Secret Paladin, Shadow Priest (Sabertooth20)
Face Hunter, Handbuff Paladin, Questline Shaman (feNix14)
Face Hunter, Shadow Priest, Elemental Shaman (Utkurt)
Questline Mage, Weapon Rogue, Questline Hand Warlock (Alo / MindMeld)
Fel Demon Hunter, Questline Mage, Questline Hand Warlock (Zhym)
Questline Demon Hunter, Miracle Rogue, Questline Shaman (HSKeDaiBiao)
Celestial Druid, Control Priest, Questline Hand Warlock (Pardal)
Questline Hunter, Questline Rogue, Questline Shaman (Enigma)
Soul Demon Hunter, Handbuff Paladin, Shadow Priest (Wenture1892)
Anacondra Druid, Libram Paladin, Questline Shaman (/ねーちゃん)
Fel Demon Hunter, Malygos Druid, Questline Shaman (Empanizado)